New H-1B Visa Rule May Hit Hundreds of Nepalis as U.S. Shifts to Salary-Based Lottery System

The Trump administration has introduced sweeping changes to the H-1B visa lottery system, a move that could significantly affect hundreds of Nepali professionals aspiring to work in the United States. The new rule, set to take effect on February 27, 2026, replaces the long-standing random lottery with a salary-based selection system—giving preference to applicants offered higher wages.

According to the final rule scheduled for publication in the Federal Register on December 29, United States Citizenship and Immigration Services (USCIS) is set to transform the H-1B selection process by implementing a “tiered probability system.” This new approach moves away from a randomized lottery by weighting entries based on the applicant’s wage level, effectively prioritizing higher-paid roles.

Under this framework, Level 4 applicants—those in the highest wage tier—will have their names entered into the selection pool four times, while Level 3 and Level 2 workers will receive three and two entries, respectively. Conversely, Level 1 workers at the lowest wage tier will only be entered once, significantly shifting the odds in favor of higher-salaried foreign professionals. This means applicants in higher salary brackets will have a much greater chance of being selected.

Nepalis Among Those Most Affected

Immigration attorney Keshab Seadai, who advises Nepali students and skilled workers in the U.S., said the rule could make it difficult for Nepali graduates and professionals to secure H-1B visas. “To fall under the third or fourth tier, one would need a salary of around $200,000 to $250,000 a year, which is far above what most Nepali graduates on OPT (Optional Practical Training) can earn,” Seadai explained.

He added that U.S. companies may prioritize graduates from Ivy League universities for such high-paying positions, while smaller firms could struggle to hire foreign workers due to high wage and processing costs. The result, experts warn, could be a sharp decline in H-1B opportunities for Nepalis transitioning from student to work visas.

H-1B Approvals and Nepali Presence

Nepalis have maintained a visible presence in the H-1B program for nearly two decades. According to USCIS data, 2,157 Nepalis received H-1B approvals in the 2024 fiscal year—1,233 new hires and 924 continuing workers—ranking Nepal 11th globally for approved petitions.

In fiscal years 2023 and 2022, 1,962 and 2,057 Nepalis were approved respectively, placing them within the top 10 countries for both new and continuing H-1B employment. Since at least 2007, Nepal has consistently remained among the top 20 nations for H-1B petition approvals.

In total, over the past 18 years, 28,233 Nepalis have had their H-1B petitions approved by USCIS—highlighting the strong and steady participation of Nepali professionals in the U.S. labor market.

Year-wise H-1B Approvals for Nepalis (FY2007–FY2024)

While the new system will make it harder for lower-salaried positions to qualify, exempt institutions—such as accredited public or nonprofit universities, university-affiliated hospitals or research centers, and government research organizations—will remain unaffected since their H-1B petitions are cap-exempt and do not go through the lottery process.

Policy Rationale and Enforcement

The USCIS has argued that the change will prevent system abuse, claiming some employers previously manipulated the random lottery to hire lower-paid foreign workers. Under the new rule, employers must provide accurate wage and occupation data during registration. Any employer found falsifying information to boost their selection odds could face petition cancellation or additional penalties.

The annual H-1B quota remains at 65,000 regular cap visas plus 20,000 additional visas for individuals holding advanced degrees from U.S. institutions.

However, immigration experts warn that by prioritizing higher salaries, the system could widen the gap between multinational corporations and smaller employers—while also reducing opportunities for foreign professionals from developing countries like Nepal.