Trump Moves to Replace H-1B Lottery With Wage-Based Selection—Who Wins or Loses?

US Citizenship and Immigration Services has notified the federal Office of Management and Budget of a proposed rule involving a “weighted selection process” for the H-1B visa. The current lottery-based visa program could be replaced with a new weighted selection process that would prioritize higher-paying positions over random selection.

Under the proposed system, selection would be merit-based, prioritizing applications based on wage levels and skill criteria, as opposed to the current system of a random lottery among all qualified applicants for 85,000 annual H-1B visas (65,000 regular + 20,000 for advanced degree holders).

This shift would likely create winners and losers. High-paying tech positions at major corporations, companies offering six-figure salaries, and workers with advanced degrees and specialized skills would likely benefit.

Conversely, potential losers include startups, nonprofits, and small businesses, many of which rely on H-1B workers but cannot offer the six-figure salaries tech giants routinely do.

Recent college graduates without significant work experience and Indian nationals, who accounted for nearly 75% of all H-1B visas issued in FY 2024, could also be disadvantaged.

This echoes Trump’s first-term approach, when his administration imposed a rule that made the allocation of H-1B visas salary-based, scrapping the lottery used to award visas. That rule was subsequently withdrawn by Trump’s successor, former President Joe Biden.

During Trump’s first term, federal authorities dramatically boosted scrutiny of H-1B applications and nearly doubled application denials to one out of four applications in 2018.

The timeline for these proposed changes includes a completed DHS notification to the Office of Management and Budget on July 17, 2025. The next steps involve Federal Register publication and a public comment period, followed by rule finalization and implementation, though the timing for these latter stages is unclear.

The proposed changes are unlikely to affect the 2025 H-1B allocation, as the 2025 H-1B lottery has already been completed, allowing 85,000 more foreign graduates into the U.S. job market.

Immigration attorneys have voiced concern, warning that the changes could shut out smaller employers and recent graduates who cannot compete on salary alone.

Ultimately, the Trump administration is reviving its effort to transform H-1B visa allocation from a random lottery to a merit-based system favoring higher wages. If implemented, this would mark the most significant change to the program since its creation, potentially reshaping how skilled foreign workers enter the U.S. job market.

This is intended for informational purposes only and does not constitute legal advice. Always consult an attorney for personalized advice.