Nepal’s DV Lottery Eligibility at Risk

Nepali citizens may soon lose their eligibility for the Diversity Visa Lottery (DV Lottery) program due to a significant increase in the number of Nepalis receiving green cards based on family ties and employment. According to US law, countries with a high issuance rate of family-based and employment-based green cards are ineligible for the DV program. If the number of Nepalis receiving green cards through these channels reaches 50,000 within a five-year period, Nepal will be automatically disqualified.

Data from the US Department of Homeland Security shows a concerning trend. In fiscal year 2023 alone, nearly 8,000 Nepalis received green cards through family and employment, excluding DV Lottery winners and asylum seekers. In 2023, the total number of green card recipients was 11,640, which included 3,375 DV Lottery winners and around 1,000 asylees. In 2022, the total number of green card recipients was 12,010, which included 2,894 DV Lottery winners and around 1,262 asylees.

Around 1 million people from Nepal participate in the DV program each year.

Looking back further, the total number of green card recipients in 2019 was 10,201, while in 2018 it reached 11,953. The trend continued in 2017 with 11,610 recipients, followed by 12,851 in 2016 and 12,926 in 2015. Even earlier data from 2013 to 2014 shows a consistent pattern, with 13,046 and 12,357 green cards issued respectively. Despite the corona epidemic, 7,847 Nepalis in 2020 and 7,309 in 2021 obtained US green cards. These figures from 2013 to 2019 include DV Lottery winners and asylees, but they still highlight the significant number of Nepalis receiving green cards through family and employment channels.

The Department of State clarifies, ‘DVs are intended to provide an immigration opportunity for persons who are not from “high admission” countries. U.S. law defines “high admission countries” as those from which a total of 50,000 persons in the Family-Sponsored and Employment-Based visa categories immigrated to the United States during the previous five years.’

The Department of State further explains, ‘Each year, the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) counts the family and employment immigrant admission and adjustment of status numbers for the previous five years to identify the countries that are considered “high admission” and whose natives will therefore be ineligible for the annual Diversity Visa program. Since DHS makes this calculation annually, the list of countries whose natives are eligible or not eligible may change from one year to the next.’

Experts warn that if the current rate of green card issuance for family and employment continues, Nepal could be disqualified from the DV Lottery program within a few years. This would be a significant blow for many Nepalis seeking permanent residency opportunities in the United States. There are increased efforts by the US embassy in Nepal to expedite immigrant visa interviews and address the large backlog of Nepalis already waiting for green cards after their initial applications have been approved.

Over a million Nepalis have been participating in the Diversity Visa (DV) Lottery program annually in recent years. Despite a brief dip when passports became mandatory for application (from 2019 to 2021), participation remains remarkably high, with over 688,502 Nepalis applying in 2021 alone.

The introduction of a mandatory passport requirement in 2019 led to a decrease in applicants. However, with the removal of the requirement in 2022 and 2023, participation is expected to rise again. Data reveals a consistent trend of high participation from Nepal. Between 2016 and 2018, around 1.1 million Nepalis participated annually.