Over the past two decades, a notable trend has emerged in the United States regarding Nepali immigration. More than 50,000 Nepali individuals—precisely 50,613—have secured U.S. green cards as asylees or refugees, according to statistics from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS). This figure underscores a significant migration pattern driven largely by claims of persecution, with many Nepalis citing threats from Maoists as their primary reason for fleeing Nepal.
However, this justification exists within a complex historical and political context. The Maoist insurgency officially ended nearly 20 years ago with the 2006 Comprehensive Peace Agreement. Since then, the Maoists have integrated into Nepal’s political mainstream, even participating in government multiple times. The U.S. government’s decision to remove the Maoists from its terrorist list over a decade ago further complicates the narrative, raising questions about the persistence of these asylum claims.
In the early years, the numbers were modest: only 12 Nepali individuals obtained green cards as asylees or refugees in fiscal year 2003, followed by 15 in 2004 and 72 in 2005. This low initial figure reflects a period when the Maoist insurgency (1996–2006) was still active, yet few Nepalis successfully sought asylum in the U.S. The sharp increase began in 2006, with 395 individuals obtaining green cards, coinciding with the signing of the peace agreement that ended the decade-long civil war.
The numbers continued to climb steadily through the late 2000s and early 2010s: 683 in 2007, 911 in 2008, 812 in 2009, and 3,093 in 2010. The significant jump in 2010—more than tripling the previous year’s total—marked the start of an upward trajectory that peaked in the mid-2010s. The numbers reached 5,299 in 2011, 5,987 in 2012, 6,137 in 2013, 5,516 in 2014, 5,261 in 2015, and 4,209 in 2016.
This period, particularly between 2013 and 2015, represents the height of Nepali asylum-based green card approvals, averaging over 5,500 annually. From 2017 onward, the numbers began to decline: 3,287 in 2017, 3,346 in 2018, 2,192 in 2019, 1,616 in 2020, 518 in 2021, and 1,262 in 2022. This downward trend aligns with stricter U.S. immigration policies under the Trump administration (2017–2021).
The dip to 518 in 2021—the lowest since 2009—reflects pandemic-related disruptions in immigration processing. The rebound to 1,262 in 2022 under the Biden administration suggests a partial recovery, though still well below the mid-2010s peak.
Contextualizing this timeline, the persistence of Maoist-related asylum claims is striking given Nepal’s political evolution. The Maoists, formally known as the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), now the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist Centre), signed the peace accord in November 2006, ending a conflict that killed over 17,000 people and displaced many more. Since then, they have joined multiparty democracy, with their leader, Pushpa Kamal Dahal (Prachanda), serving as prime minister multiple times, including as recently as December 2022.
The U.S. removed the Maoists from its terrorist list in 2012, signaling a shift in perception of the group as a threat. Yet, DHS data shows that green card approvals through asylum remained high even after this delisting—6,137 in 2013 and 5,516 in 2014.
Comparing the data across years, the peak period of 2011–2016 (averaging 5,300 annually) starkly contrasts with the earlier period from 2003 to 2009 (averaging 514 annually) and the later period from 2017 to 2022 (averaging 2,037 annually).
“Many Nepali people claim asylum by citing threats from the Maoists, which has led to a significant decrease in the approval of Nepali asylum applications by USCIS. However, the approval rate of asylum cases from immigration courts is still notable. Nevertheless, in recent years, the approval rate from immigration courts has also declined,” an immigration attorney said.
Recently, the U.S. Department of Justice’s Executive Office for Immigration Review revealed that the asylum approval rate for Nepalis in U.S. immigration courts stood at 60 percent in the fiscal year 2024. Although this figure remains among the highest globally, it represents a decline from the previous year’s approval rate of 64 percent.
In fiscal year 2024, 493 asylum cases involving Nepali applicants were approved, reflecting the 60 percent approval rate. In comparison, in fiscal year 2023, there were 936 asylum cases involving Nepalis, of which 601 (64 percent) were approved.
The COVID-19 pandemic significantly impacted asylum case outcomes, with fewer approvals due to court delays. In 2021, only 143 Nepalis were granted asylum, while the figure for 2020 was 308. Despite these challenges, Nepalis achieved a record-breaking year in 2019, with 606 asylum approvals—the highest recorded to date.
Other historical data indicate consistent trends in Nepali asylum approvals. In 2022, there were 488 approvals. Previous years include 470 in 2018, 290 in 2017, 260 in 2016, 250 in 2015, 292 in 2014, and 381 in 2013 from U.S. immigration courts.
Once among the top nationalities receiving asylum directly from USCIS, Nepalis now rarely obtain it through this channel. According to the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), only 20 Nepalis received direct asylum grants from USCIS in 2023—a sharp decline compared to previous decades.
After the approval of asylum from an immigration court or USCIS, asylees can receive a green card after one year of approval.
Nearly 10,000 asylum cases involving Nepali applicants are still pending in U.S. immigration courts, while approximately 5,000 asylum applications from Nepalis are pending with USCIS, totaling around 15,000.
According to data from the Department of Homeland Security (DHS), around 9,000 Nepalis have been recorded in nationwide U.S. Border Patrol (USBP) encounters during President Joe Biden’s tenure, with most of them claiming asylum. Under the previous Trump administration, a total of 1,850 Nepalis were recorded in USBP encounters over four years.
In September 2024, DHS recorded 360 Nepalis in USBP encounters. In August, the number was 260, up from 210 in July and 200 in June, showing a steady increase from May’s figure of 180.
In fiscal year 2024, spanning from October 2023 to September 2024, 3,690 Nepalis were recorded in USBP encounters, an increase from 3,140 in fiscal year 2023. In October 2024, the number of Nepalis recorded was 440, and in November, the number dropped to 300.
From 2014 to 2022, only 5,180 Nepalis were recorded in USBP encounters over a span of nine years. In stark contrast, 6,830 Nepalis have been recorded in just 24 months since October 2022 (3,140 in fiscal year 2023 and 3,690 in fiscal year 2024). In the first two months of the current fiscal year (October-November 2024), 740 Nepalis were already recorded in USBP encounters.
During fiscal year 2022, 1,490 Nepalis were recorded at the U.S.-Mexico border, a sharp increase from 420 in fiscal year 2021. By comparison, under the previous Trump administration, 1,850 Nepalis were recorded in USBP encounters over four years: 650 in fiscal year 2017, 720 in 2018, 340 in 2019, and 140 in 2020.
In 2014, 460 Nepalis were recorded at the border, followed by 410 in 2015 and 550 in 2016. Many of these individuals reportedly paid thousands of dollars to smugglers to facilitate their entry into the U.S. Some were released into the country immediately, while others were detained or deported.
The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) categorizes border encounters into three distinct groups: apprehensions, inadmissibles, and expulsions.
Apprehensions refer to individuals temporarily detained by the U.S. Border Patrol (USBP) after illegally crossing the border between ports of entry. These individuals may or may not be arrested under Title 8 regulations, and they retain the right to file for asylee status.
Inadmissibles are individuals who seek legal admission at official ports of entry but are deemed ineligible by officers of the Office of Field Operations (OFO) under Title 8. This category also includes those seeking humanitarian protection as well as individuals who voluntarily withdraw their admission applications. Like those apprehended, inadmissibles may also file for asylee status.
Expulsions involved migrants denied entry exclusively under Title 42, a measure implemented to curb the spread of COVID-19. This policy was in effect from March 2020 to May 2023. During this period, USBP and OFO officers were authorized to expel individuals, returning them to their home country or the last non-U.S. location they had traveled through. Unlike other categories, those expelled under Title 42 were not afforded the opportunity to apply for asylum.
These encounters do not necessarily reflect the actual number of people attempting to cross the border. Some individuals make multiple crossings during the same fiscal year, meaning they appear more than once in the data. Others successfully enter without encountering any U.S. official.
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Kishor Panthi
View More PostsKishor Panthi is the founder and editor-in-chief of Khasokhas and NepYork. He is the author of three books, “Kampan,” "UNTRANSLATABLE" and “Zero Mile.” He writes about social issues, immigration, and politics.
